A Prague Spring for Iran?

The following is a free translation of a post writen by Dutch-Iranian refugee and Leiden University lecturer, Afshin Ellian, published earlier today in Elsevier Magazine.

"We owe allegiance not to Gaza (Hamas) nor to Lebanon (Hezbollah), only to Iran", Iranians were shouting the last few days. After thirty years of Islamism, Islamic terrorism no longer has the support of the people.

The expenditure in support of terrorist groups is a secret of state. According to the opposition it involves billions of dollars. This money belongs to the Iranian people. Many live under the poverty line.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah said in a live television interview that 40 million Iranians voted for Khamenei and therefore for the theocratic system. He also said that "our friends are quarelling over the result, but with Khamenei's wisdom all will be settled in due course.

Does the terror chief of Lebanon know more than we do? He's afraid he will lose the support of Iran. 

Hamas, Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood and Syria were the first to congratulate the Iranian people with their anti Israeli election. Now the people of Iran hate them even more. Civilized countries and organizations have refused to congratulate Admadinejad on his election [ed. that statement says all we need to know about Miguel D'Escoto Brockmann, who was one of the very first to extend his warmest wishes. D'Escoto is the former foreign minister of Communist Sandinista Nicaragua, and a Catholic priest who advocates Marxist-oriented liberation theology. He currently serves as the  President of the UN General Assembly!]. 

Each wish is an insult to the people of Iran. Only thirteen countries have recognized the Ahmadinejad Presidency, amongst them oppressive autocrats, Russia and China. These two countries take an enormous risk. If the people win this battle they'll not be able to make as much money out of Iran as they used to. They have a vested interest in disrupting Iranian relations with the West.

Due to censorship and state sponsored terrorism we are unable to verify all information coming out of Iran. These are the facts:

- In the last couple of days many citizens got killed and many hundreds have been wounded.

- A number of universities are closed. Some two hundred professors quit their posts.

- Hundreds of people have been arrested. They are interned in Dept. 209 of the infamous Ewin Prison at Tehran. Through torture the regime is trying to obtain confessions that they have acted on the orders of the West and Israel.

- Huge protest rallies continue to be held every day.

- The Revolutionary Guard and other security services have been mobilized, and are on a war footing. 
- All means of communication are regularly scrambled.

We are unsure about the reliability of sources within the regime. These are people who say they no longer wish to cooperate with the system:

- A colonel of the guard and an officer of the Revolutionary Guard said they were ordered to beat civilians so hard they would no longer be able to rally. "We have the right and the duty to kill". Yesterday they were ordered not to attack. There would be other assignments. 

- The religious city of Qum has been entirely militarised with the view to disrupt communications between disgruntled clerics and the outside world.

- Rafsanjani, the chief of the disenfranchised faction, has tried to convince other clerics of his plan to replace Khamenei with Ayatollah Montazeri. The latter was deposed by Khomeini. He has been living under house arrest for almost twenty years. Rafsanjani's plan hasn't worked, so far.

- The regime wants to instigate a confrontation between two factions of citizens and use that as a excuse to set the country officially on a war footing. The legal basis would be the general safety of the public. This will allow them to push through extraparliamentary legislation.

- Garrisons of the Revolutionary Guard in the larger cities have been reinforced. Some 20,000 extra troops have been assigned to Tehran alone. The plan is the re-enactment of the Prague Spring. The regime will use all the means at its disposal.

Furthermore there's a distinct possibility a Chinese tank model will be deployed. The army will not be involved. They're afraid the army will side of the people. The same is possible with members of the Revolutionary Guard.

There are also reports that the regime is utilizing Arab radicals (from Lebanon), currently training at Sepah Quds for terrorist operations, for the oppression of the people of Iran. Sepah Quds is on a US terror watch list. It's a sub-unit of the Revolutionary Guard. According to American and British sources Sepah Quds also trained Iraqi radicals for operations in Iraq.

The next few days will not be easy for the Iranian people. Things will get tense. But they have expressed their wishes. "Not to Gaza, nor to Lebanon, just dedicated to Iran."

Update:

Tehran Bureau: "Iran Updates"

Mousavi’s open letter to the people of Iran. Released tonight at 9:21pm. It states that he stands with the people to protect the original aims of the revolution to reach human rights and democracy. He states that what they got instead was fraud, injustice, torture and lies. He states why he will not stand down and why all the security forces of Iran are brothers and sisters that should support the nation. He says the body charged with investigating the elections is not a neutral body. He calls on authorities to pull the security forces and basij out of the streets and allow the people’s voices to be heard peacefully. (...) >>>

- Filed on Articles in "Iran Power Play" -