Sunday, December 13, 2009

Breaking News From Iran

"Mutiny in the Military"

by Afshin Ellian

Breaking news!

Pundits and diplomats have been wondering why the Iranian regime is loath to use the China model against protesters and opponents in the Green Wave movement. The China model stands for an extremely brutal, widespread and violent crack down on the opposition. Well, what does it mean?

Tanks and armed military charging and firing into the crowds. A wave of executions is also included in the model. Applied to Iran that would mean deploying around three in the morning and arresting anyone 'green'.

All means of communication are shut down simultaneously. Citizens will be waking up to an address by the leader who declares the rallies over. Thousands will be executed. Swiftness and brutality is the essence of the China model. Why doesn't Khamenei do that?

He pondered it this summer before he became indisposed. He even gave the order to arrest opposition leader Mousavi. But he withdrew the order when he was told that Iran would explode.

But a more important reason may be found in the military themselves. The Army and swathes of the Revolutionary Gard (RG) would have chosen the side of the people. Khamenei's military power would have collapsed. There were indications for that, but not proof. But that has now changed.

So far the Iranian Armed Forces have not been involved in oppressive action against the people. On December 10 a number of officers and commanders issued a statement. The statement was signed by:

- A number of Pilots and employees of the Airborne Division of the Iranian Army (Havanirooz);
- A number of commanders and employees of the 33rd Artillery of Isfahan;
- A number of pilots and personnel of the Iranian Air Force;
- Lecturers at the Shaid Satari Air Force University;
- A number of officers and personnel at the Logistics Training Center of the Iranian Army;
- A number of professors and lecturers at the Imam Ali University for Army Officers;

- A number of officers, personnel and commanders of the Armed Forces Chief of Staff.

The declaration reads:

"We have been fighting together with our brothers in the Revolutionary Gard to defend the nation, the people and our honor". They emphasized that ... "the value of the country is the value of the nation". That's interesting!

It isn't abstract concepts like Iran or Islam, but it's the value of the nation that is the value of the country. Therefore the weapons of the Armed Forces and RG are disposed to the defense of the nation: "When we fought together, we had no inkling that a part of the RG would turn their weapons against the people."

The short declaration issued by these brave officers will render them immortal: "The Armed Forces are a place of refuge to the nation and will never oppress the people at the request of politicians. We will stand by our pledge not to intervene in politics. But we will not be silent when our compatriots are oppressed by tyranny."
"Therefore we warn the gardists who have betrayed the martyrs (of the Iran-Iraq War) and decided to taint the lives, properties and honor of our civilians. We give them clear warning that if they don't see the error of their ways, they will have to deal with us. We will defend the peace loving Iranian nation against any form of aggression".
The declaration has been published on the sites of various human rights organizations, Iran Press News, Amir Kabir and Gooya.

I've discussed it with various sources inside and outside Iran. It is real. If Khamenei will have these officers arrested, resistance will spread like wildfire to all barracks.

It is ironic that Air Force officers have now joined ranks with the people. Thirty years ago that was also the case when the Shah was toppled in just a few weeks' time. Now that his power is waning in the military, American and European diplomats should warn Khamenei of the consequences of his rule.


- "Persian Power Play"


James Higham said...
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